On the morning of February 16, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation held the "2022 China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Economic Operation Press Conference" in Beijing, which was held in a combination of online and offline. The meeting comprehensively showed the operation status of the petrochemical industry in 2022, and made an outlook for the operation in 2023.
Looking back to 2022, China's petroleum and chemical industry is generally stable and orderly.
In 2022, the century's changes and the century's epidemic situation were superimposed, global growth slowed down and local contradictions were prominent. Facing the complex and severe situation, China's oil and chemical industry, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, actively responded to the impact of many unexpected factors, and the industry generally achieved stable operation, providing a solid guarantee for national energy security and economic and social development.
From the perspective of investment growth alone, industrial investment in 2022 increased by 10.3% year on year, and manufacturing investment increased by 9.1% year on year, while the growth rate of oil and gas exploration and chemical industry investment significantly exceeded the national average level of industry and manufacturing. The data shows that in 2022, the completed investment in oil and gas exploitation industry will increase by 15.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate will increase by 11.3 percentage points year-on-year; The completed investment in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 18.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 3.1 percentage points year-on-year; The completed investment in oil, coal and other fuel processing industries decreased by 10.7% year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of 8.0% last year. Oil and gas exploration and chemical investment have increased significantly, laying a solid foundation for China's energy supply guarantee and self-sufficiency of raw materials in the later stage.
Nevertheless, the petrochemical industry is also facing strong pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening, and the operation trend shows a strong trend of high and falling, and the unbalanced development of external factors also intensifies the internal differentiation.
From the perspective of the petroleum and chemical industry prosperity index (PCPI), the overall industry prosperity in 2022 showed a high decline trend, and fell to the cold and supercooled range in the third quarter. However, from the fourth quarter, although the industry price and efficiency are still declining, the landscape has shown a steady recovery.
Looking forward to 2023, the recovery of demand will benefit the marginal improvement of the petrochemical industry
In 2023, the macro economy will generally show a trend of "internal rise and external decline". The growth of the world economy has slowed down, the downward pressure has increased, and developed economies such as Europe and the United States have dragged down the global economic recovery. High inflation and geopolitical turbulence are still uncertain factors affecting the prospects of the world economy. The year 2023 is the key year for the implementation of the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan". Facing the uncertain internal and external environment, the Party Central Committee and the State Council continue to maintain the general tone of economic work of "keeping the word stable and seeking progress while maintaining stability". It is expected that under the policy background of turning the epidemic and promoting the overall improvement of economic operation, China's economy will show a relatively obvious recovery trend.
From the perspective of oil demand, driven by various factors such as the slowdown in the growth of oil demand due to the weak global economy, the long-term shortage of fossil energy investment, and the implementation of sanctions imposed by the United States and Western countries on Russia, the growth of oil supply is expected to be limited. In 2023, the average price of Brent is expected to be 80-90 dollars per barrel, lower than 2022, but still at a high level.
From the perspective of the Petroleum and Chemical Industry Prosperity Index (PCPI), in January 2023, the index continued to rise, moving from cold to normal (99.34), showing a good recovery trend.
In January 2023, the prosperity index of the petrochemical industry recovered rapidly, and the prosperity value rose to 99.34, up 4.53 percentage points from December 2022, and the prosperity index returned to the normal range; Compared with the same period in 2022, the year-on-year decline was 8.4 percentage points, and the decline was significantly narrowed.